What the BN victory means

By Hakim Joe

It came from the Indian and Chinese voters.

A landslide win for Mohd. Isa could only signify a few pertinent things, but let us start from the beginning. 

On the nomination day when Umno officially selected Mohd. Isa to be the BN candidate, it meant that not only corruption is tolerated, it is formally endorsed by the highest echelons of Umno. For the rest of the coalition partners to remain quiet is to tacitly give their consent to this selection, hence sanctioning corruption as well. The few people who spoke out against this choice are past their prime and no longer the movers and shakers they once were, and hence can safely be ignored. 

For the people to give this man an overwhelming majority in the contest means factually that this candidate, who had been once found guilty of corruption, is forgiven. It also suggests that it is perfectly ok for any elected representative to be corrupted. 

Bagan Pinang is a small township with three army camps and eight army outfits within its boundaries. It has a registered voter base of 13,664 voters (14,192 in 2008) made up from 62.3% Malays, 20.7% Indians, 11% Chinese and 6% Others. Postal votes account for 33.7% of the total votes. The turnout according to the Election Commission is 81.65%. 

Mohd. Isa collected 8,013 votes against Zulkefly Mohamad Omar’s 2,578 votes. That means that Mohd. Isa obtained 71.8% of the total votes cast. The postal votes alone accounted for 3,521 (Zulkefly got 601 votes) or 31.6% of the total.

Look at the percentages. The figures do not lie. The Malay vote only accounted for 62.3% but Mohd. Isa won by 71.8%. Hypothetically, if 80% of the Malays voted for Isa, that would mean that only 50% of the 71.8% is accounted for. Where did the other 21.8% come from? 

The answer is easy. It came from the Indian and Chinese voters. As the total of both the Indian and Chinese voters is 31.8%, this means that more than two-thirds (68.6%) of these people voted for Mohd. Isa. The swing back to BN is 14.2% (from 2008). 

To be fair, the postal votes were real killers. To win 85.4% of the postal votes or 31.6% of the total votes finished off whatever high hopes Pakatan dreamt of. Even if there were zero postal votes or if the votes were tied, Isa would nevertheless have had an easy romp home. However, this is something Pakatan must face up to. It is pointless to bemoan the fact that the opponent is born here or is popular here. What if BN selects all home grown candidates in their next election? Should Pakatan just fold up and go home then? Yes, Bagan Pinang is a BN stronghold and it is exactly these constituencies that Pakatan must make a notable progress. Losing is nothing as there is always the next time but losing with a bigger majority is not exactly inspirational. 

Can this be the revival BN is hoping for? Pakatan had better start doing something about it cos they need to win over such rural voters, and not just rely on the urban voters. Relying on the non-Malay voters in Bagan Pinang was evidently disastrous. In 2008, about 80% of the Indians and 65% of the Chinese voted opposition. (These figures are obtained from political analyst Dr Wan Abdul Rahman Wan Abdul Latiff.) That is approximately 74.8% non-Malays voting for the opposition. Now it has dropped to 31.4%. What exactly happened here? Can the actions of one PAS Commissioner (in Selangor) be so damning on another PAS Commissioner (in Negeri Sembilan)?

Why are these state seats so important when the formation of the federal government is decided by parliamentary seats? The answer is this – can Pakatan guarantee parliamentary victory during the next elections? If the answer is in the negative, then it is these state governments that Pakatan must attempt to secure and subsequently be utilized as a home base to propagate the Opposition ideology and to inhibit the BN propaganda.

So, what does this BN victory means? It damn well means a lot of things but mostly, it means that Pakatan can no longer contend to split the Malay vote and allow the non-Malay vote to be the deciding factor. It means that the non-Malay votes are not entirely swinging to the Opposition. It means that the rural voters are still voting for BN. It means that it is time for Pakatan to start selecting their potential candidates now and permit them the time to start campaigning in their selected constituencies. It means that Pakatan needs to be more prominent in the rural constituencies. It means that the public spats between the three parties and party back stabbing are having a definite negative effect on the voters.

Oh yes, it is a lot easier said than done. However, if Pakatan does nothing, the next election is as good as lost. 2013 is another 3 years plus of BN rule and Najib will be utilising this time to consolidate his position. If Pakatan does not make any progress between now and then, it will be 2018 before anything can be done and who knows whether Malaysia will still be solvent then.